Sports bets are often very profitable if you know the strategies the “smart money” bettors employ to consistently make dollars. One of the primary secrets that clever money bettors use is definitely knowing when NOT to be able to bet.
Here’s a best illustration. My partner and i analyzed the West Virginia vs. Louisville activity, and concluded the fact that West California had the particular edge in the video game. However , My spouse and i also realized that there was a whole lot of random and capricious factors, and recommended to a clients that they perform not guess on this specific game. Here is our analysis I released before the game:
West Florida or Louisville
This sport has all the indications of being one connected with the greatest games associated with the year, having equally teams coming into the adventure 7-0. It’s #3 rated West Virginia as opposed to. #5 ranked Louisville, equally along with high-scoring offenses and stingy defenses. Last year’s game was a classic, along with Western Virginia coming rear from getting down large in the final quarter to winning in overtime.
So what’s the overall game look like this year?
In the event that this match were as played with the neutral field, West Virginia would probably be a 4-6 level favorite. Since the game is Louisville, WVU is a 1-point under dog. Let’s see if this makes sense…
West Virginia is on an unprecedented throw. These people haven’t lost given that Jan. 1, 2005, planning 14-0 since they misplaced to Florida Tech. In the last two times they’re 13-5 ATS at the same time. They’re also 7-2 OBTAIN THE in their last on the lookout for games overall, and 8-2 ATS in their previous 10 ROAD games.
These kinds of are some very amazing stats that tilt the scales in favor associated with WVU with regard to tonight’s game. Plus, this added bonus is that WVU is definitely GETTING +1 point. This can not seem to be like much, but in a in close proximity match-up such as this, that more point will make the difference between a new push and even a loss.
But you may be wondering what about Louisville?
Louisville’s statistics are generally almost as good as WVU’s -except when it comes to Louisville in the point spread. In their very last 10 games, Louisville is actually 4-6 ATS. The fact that said, Louisville is all the same 7-3 ATS into their final 10 home games.
Together with if you’re leaning in direction of WVU, here’s a terrifying stat… Louisville hasn’t shed in your house since January 17, 2003! During this existing run Louisville is hitting 49. some points every game in your own home, while averaging only letting go of 15. six points each game with home. In case you didn’t do the math, that means given that their own last home loss they’ve averaged beating their oppositions by about 34 factors per game.
What’s more extraordinary, the average line in these games has only also been 21 points. That means Louisville has beaten the divide, on average, by simply 13 factors per video game at home considering that 2003.
Wow… how can you not in favor of that?
tosple.com of those stats were being established during the 2004 season. In 2010, 2006, Louisville has been nearer to good than great. They’ve experienced recent games by which they have already only scored 36, twenty-three, 24 points. And the activities weren’t against Oh Street. or Michigan. They had been against Cincinnati, Syracuse, together with Kansas St.
The bottom line is that will this is still the close sport to call up. Nevertheless the things i look for is West Virginia’s safety to carry the day. If Cincinnati, Syracuse, and Kansas St. can almost all hold Louisville under thirty points, then there’s not any reason to think WVU can’t hold them to typically the low to middle 20’s. My honest recommendation is to lay off this specific game and not necessarily guarantee at all. There will be better game titles this end of the week with more simple strengths.
The final score in this game was Louisville forty four, West California 34. Lousiville won because West Las vegas had 6 fumbles together with allowed Lousiville to go back the punt for a good TD. The bottom line was that West Virginia’s borders had not been so big that they may possibly still win following producing so many mistakes. Simply by not betting on this video game, people significant concerning sports betting saved money they will can put to better make use of on approaching games.